Caitlin Clark WNBA Projection

What will Caitlin Clark’s transition to the WNBA look like? Is she in for a rude awakening?

Let me say something really quick about that (a potential rude awakening from WNBA veterans).

I am of the opinion that WNBA officials allow too much contact on defense. For context, I am also of the opinion that the NBA in the regular season calls way too many ‘touch’ fouls — it has been better in the Playoffs. So, my position is that the WNBA needs to move a little bit in the direction of the NBA (call more fouls and allow more freedom of movement for offensive players), but not go overboard all the way to the point of how the NBA regular season is officiated.

The NBA basketball product is better with some more physicality on the defensive end of the floor (see NBA Playoffs). The WNBA basketball product would have better in the Finals last year (Aces vs. Liberty), if defensive players were not allowed to grab and hold like they were — there has to be a middle ground for both the NBA and WNBA.

This foul discussion is relevant to my Caitlin Clark WNBA Rookie projection because along with the total shift of popularity of women’s basketball I think the WNBA is going to examine how to maximize the shift — and that includes the officiating.

Keep an eye out in terms of how the 2024 WNBA season is officiated.

Back to a popular projection question about Caitlin Clark: How many points will she average as a rookie?

Well, some notable examples to compare to Clark are Chamique Holdsclaw and Diana Taurasi. Both averaged around 17 ppg as rookies.

I had the number 18 ppg floating around my head, but I am not going to be surprised if that “ppg” number is higher than that (and generally higher than some people think it will be).

The shot chart model for Clark should be 16-18 shots per game, and 7-9 of those shots coming from the 3-pt line. Some of the talk about the adjustment to the WNBA is how she is going to do facing stronger defenders with more length (wingspan) and athleticism.

I agree that there will be some WNBA defenders that give her problems, but she is also going to have the physical advantage at times. I am most interested to see how many open 3’s she gets in “Early Offense” (Transition, Secondary Break, etc.) — not allowing defenders to crowd her and be physical with her.

In addition to the Transition 3’s, also look for Clark coming off screens away from the ball (like Stephen Curry) and not have to navigate a 1 v 1 defender. In the clip I highlighted below (at 1:33-1:38), she came off of a stagger screen where Angel Reese had to help and close out on Clark on her 3-pt shot attempt. Reese is going to be an above-average defender in the WNBA and Clark was able to comfortably get her shot off in rhythm; she even drifts back naturally on her shot.

I thought Clark could have played minutes in the WNBA when she was a sophomore at Iowa. So, I don’t think this transition is going to be as bumpy as some people are saying. She added 8 pounds of muscle from her sophomore season to her junior season at Iowa — in other words, she took steps in college to be prepared for her WNBA rookie season. Her size, strength and speed (in addition to her shooting) translate well to the pro game.

The UCONN and South Carolina games in the Final Four were great WNBA tests — very similar to what she is going to see starting tonight. Those two teams held her to 37% shooting. I think we will see some of that (lower shooting percentages while she gets acquainted to the pro game).

***Luka Doncic shot 42.7% from the floor as an NBA rookie and improved to 46.3% in his second season. Luka is an interesting comparison from a statistics perspective for Caitlin Clark. He averaged 32.2 minutes per game, 21.1 points per game and 6.0 assists per game as a rookie. Can Clark do that?

Luka was wise beyond his years as a 19-year-old rookie as he had been playing against 30-year-old pros before his NBA rookie season. He got to the FT line 6.7 times per game, as he has always been crafty in the paint with decelerating drives and pass fakes. I don’t think Clark has all of that in her bag … yet. But another thing that gets overlooked with Clark is she adapts well. So, look to see how she adapts to the WNBA game after the first 8-10 games or so.

Sue Bird averaged 14.4 points per game as a rookie and took less than 12 shots per game. I don’t see a world where Clark takes less than 12 shots per game this season.

The scoring and shooting is fun to think about in terms of projecting Clark’s game, but do not overlook her passing. The PnR game with her and Aliyah Boston is going to be something.

Indiana Fever 3-Guard Lineup

The #1 thing I am going to be paying attention to in terms of this Indiana Fever team is how much Clark is used as the PG and how much she is used off the ball (letting Erica Wheeler handle some PG duties).

Look for Erica Wheeler pushing the ball and Clark running the Wing on occasion (that is what happened in the 2nd picture below - got an open look from 3).

NEXT PART OF CAITLIN CLARK’s PRO DEVELOPMENT (this might take some time):

1. Evolution of middle-game (floaters, mid-range jumpers, etc.)

2. Getting to the FT line

Can Caitlin Clark average 20+ points per game as rookie and 7+ assists per game? That would be a high bar.

Should I make a random final guess on her stat line? Hmmmm …

One thing that I like to do in terms of following players is track their progress as I watch them play (I cheat a little bit in terms of seeing what they can do first). Doing a projection without seeing her play one game is not something I have ever done, but …

I don’t think it is crazy that her scoring could range from 18-23 points per game.

Another variable is that she is not going to have to pay her rookie dues with the veterans on this Fever team. They already know that for the team to succeed Clark needs to shoot — so her teammates are going to look to get her shots in the games and encourage her to shoot. That is an important part of this whole equation.

Random Guess (end of season stats): 21.7 points per game, 6.1 assists per game

17.4 shots per game at .460 (her FG% might be a lot lower than that during her rookie season and make jumps in her 2nd and 3rd seasons)

7.2 3-pt attempts per game at .361

The big question mark is how well she will do getting to the FT line. Diana Taurasi shot 3.8 FTs per game as a Rookie. So, if Clark does that and shoots .860 from the FT line, then all of that would add up to 21.728. [Maybe she takes less shots and sets up Aliyah Boston to be their leading scorer — that might even be the smarter approach.]

Are these projections too lofty? We’ll see. I have no problem being way off, but I wanted to put something out there before tonight’s game.